At least one of my stocks is doing pretty well in this terrible, depressing market environment. Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) hit a new 52-week high of $36.84 on Tuesday. It closed a little below that, but it was a great, high-volume day for the stock, one that saw the shares rise almost 5%.

Yes, with the Dow Jones index shedding 100 points, with every other stock in my portfolio in the red, including MFA (NYSE: MFA), which closed down to $6.66 -- the number of the beast, my friends -- Activision not only held its own, but it powered higher. Perhaps it's due to the new Guitar Hero game coming out for the DS. Perhaps there's a new wave of excitement over the merger now that investors are receiving their documents (I just got mine the other day, a big book full of wonderful information about the Activision/Vivendi agreement). No matter, though, it was Activision's day, since competitors Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) were down Tuesday, and THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) closed up only four measly pennies.

I love this price action, and I think it might be predicting a prosperous Q4 holiday season for the company, which will eventually be called Activision Blizzard after the merger. I'm also hoping the action indicates that the stock will be reasonably stable during the summer, which I think is going to be rough on the markets as oil and inflation headlines dominate the tape.

Activision will be taking full advantage of consoles from Sony (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) in the coming months. Analyst Michael Pachter is bullish on the company, according to this article, believing that shares will eventually reach $45. And this Hollywood Reporter article states that the video-game business should grow 10% during the next few years and reach $68 billion in terms of annual sales.

It's a great time to be a shareholder of Activision, and it will be even greater to be a shareholder of Activision Blizzard. I don't know where the stock is going to close on Wednesday, but as of this writing, I'm pretty pleased with the long-term thesis on the company.

Disclosure: I own Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Take-Two Interactive's (NASDAQ: TTWO) Grand Theft Auto IV game stole the number-one position on the software sales chart for May, according to data from market research firm NPD. It sold over 1.3 million copies last month, and it has moved over 4 million since it hit the street. I figured Take-Two would be taking the top slot here, but the big question on my mind pertained to how Nintendo's (OTC: NTDOY) Wii system would do in May. After all, the fad has to wear out at some point, right? At some magical juncture, either Sony's (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 or Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 will displace the Wii and become the top-selling system of the month.

Well, that hasn't happened yet. The Wii sold the most, moving 675,000 systems. That was more than three times the amount of consoles sold by PlayStation 3. And as for the Xbox 360, that came in dead last, moving only 187,000 units. All told, total video-game sales, including hardware and games, increased 37% year-over-year. Yep, video games are still hot.

I'm going to predict that the Wii Fit will be the top-selling game package for the month of June. This thing is flying off the shelves in my area, even at $90 (apparently, high fuel costs aren't hurting Nintendo's clientele). Does that mean that Nintendo might make for a good short-term trade? Maybe, but I'd prefer buying it safely below $60 per share. As of this writing, it's trading well above $60 per share. I continue to hold Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) as my play on video games, and will be keeping Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) in the back of my mind as August approaches, since that will be when the new Madden game arrives in stores. Not sure if that's worthy of a trade yet.

Disclosure: I own Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Was it any surprise that Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) beat expectations for the second quarter? Not a chance. That's because Grand Theft Auto IV stole a lot of hardcore-gamer hearts when it made its eagerly anticipated debut back in April. Net revenues more than doubled to nearly $540 million in Q2, and adjusted net income came in at $1.52 per share. Briefing.com says that the bottom-line results were $0.39 ahead of analyst expectations. Again, we saw this coming.

Take-Two opened Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 platforms with excellent fanfare and brilliant marketing, taking full advantage of the brand equity intrinsic to the title. An impressive 8.5 million discs of the title have been sold so far. Job well done. Plus, BioShock is coming to PlayStation 3 later this year. That's going to be a major franchise in the years to come.

Yet, I will not buy the stock. With the arbitrage battle surrounding Take-Two and its takeover dance with Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), I simply am discouraged from stepping in and adding the company to my portfolio. I owned Take-Two at one time, but I'm not interested in getting back in. Besides, the news is out on Grand Theft Auto, so who knows if this would have been much of a trade right now, even if the EA deal wasn't on the table. Great quarter, excellent future guidance, but I just don't see the value of playing the buyout-game here.

Disclosure: I don't own any of these companies, but positions can change at any time.

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Activision Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) doesn't want to let Rock Band have all the fun. According to Reuters, Activision wants to turn its Guitar Hero platform into a truly direct competitor to its colleague. Come the fall, the publisher will release Guitar Hero World Tour, a package that will include a guitar, a microphone, and a drum set. There will be online capability; players will also be able to create their own tunes via a suite of digital-music tools. And all the major platforms from Sony Corporation (ADR) (NYSE: SNE), Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), and Nintendo Co., Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY) will be getting this game.

Rock Band, which is developed by Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s Harmonix and sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), is no longer unique now that Activision has expanded the depth of its famous brand. Indeed, Guitar Hero still thrived even in the face of Viacom's music game, but it looks like Activision is taking no chances; the publisher obviously realizes that, as time goes on and upgrades to Rock Band come along, the Guitar Hero franchise might see eventual erosion of its fan base as the fad matures. Evolution would certainly be justified at this point.

Yet, I am of two minds about this move. On the one side, I can understand why this had to be done. And I can see why it should work out; after all, Activision's brand equity when it comes to this Guitar Hero game is incredible. Seriously, if you don't know, a lot of players out there, both hardcore and casual, love this platform. However, there's another side to me that wonders if traditionalists won't necessarily enjoy the aspect of the additional instruments. Do they add value, or do they now make the brand seem clunky and complicated? On a gut level, I always theorized that those who chose Guitar Hero over Rock Band relished the fact that it was just one guitar. Then again, going back to the brand-equity thing, maybe current players will now want to try out a more complex musical-gaming experience since the Guitar Hero name is attached.

There's another thing that bothers me, too, and this is strictly an anecdotal, of-the-gut worry that will probably have no bearing at all on the potential for success of this new Guitar Hero initiative (but I'll mention it anyway). In my area, there definitely is still way more buzz for Guitar Hero than there is for Rock Band. Stores around me see some of the latter collecting dust outside of the holiday-selling season, unless there is a sale going on to push the package. Will this happen to Guitar Hero World Tour? It will certainly sport a higher price, so, when Christmas is over, will demand go down? If so, will this hurt the appeal of the traditional game?

Again, that is my own biased observation, and it is not to be taken scientifically. Obviously, I realize that Rock Band is a big game and has been a major driver for Viacom. What would be great, however, is if Activision played this really smart and concentrated on the expanded Guitar Hero during the Christmas season and gave it a rest during other times of the year, focusing at those periods on its traditional Guitar Hero brand.

No matter what, though, I do find this exciting as an Activision shareholder. So long as it doesn't do anything to dilute the brand, I'm all for it (remember, folks, Guitar Hero is a major reason for the success of Activision's stock, and any changes to this flagship product should not be taken lightly). Owners of PlayStation 2 and 3, Xbox 360, and Nintendo Wii, look out, because Activision will be rocking you yet again...

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Still in deal news, the Wall Street Journal reported that after failing to get the support of a majority of the company's shareholders for a deal and after the previous deadline has expired Friday, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) is likely to again extend the deadline for its hostile tender offer to acquire Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO).

Lowe's Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) shares are down over 3% in premarket trading after the home improvement retailer said its profit fell 17.9% and sales fell 8.4% as it faces a challenging sales environment amid a national housing slump. Lowe's 41 cents earnings per share is actually about the 40 cents estimated by analysts.

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Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) has launched its important new "Grand Theft Auto IV" franchise and it has done remarkably well. It did not cause a big bump in the firm's stock, which has only moved from $26.62 three weeks ago to $27.10.

The company's one suitor, Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), had already taken the shares up from from under $18 with its buyout offer. Most analysts believe that the offer will be extended because Take-Two has resisted a buyout.

According to The Wall Street Journal, there is a "belief among Take-Two management and some of the company's shareholders that the company deserves a higher offer from EA. "

No matter what Take-Two believes, EA's best move now is probably not to extend the offer but, instead, to walk away. The Take-Two share price would be very likely to move back below $20, which would pressure the company's board to do something to move the share price back up again.

EA's shareholders are ill-served if the company extends its offer. Without a buyer, Take-Two might have to come to the negotiating table and Electronic Arts could get a better deal.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

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Here are some highlights from this past week's earnings coverage from BloggingStocks:

• AnnTaylor Stores Corp. (NYSE: ANN) sees Q1 profits beating estimates but reaffirmed the full-year outlook.
• Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) beat Q1 earnings expectations but fell short of revenue estimates.
• Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) posted strong Q4 and full-year results on titles such as Rock Band.
• Fossil Inc. (NASDAQ: FOSL) forecast Q1 earnings just a penny below analysts' estimates.
• IMAX Corp. (NASDAQ: IMAX) doubled its Q1 loss and missed Wall Street's expectations.
• JC Penney Co. Inc. (NYSE: JCP) profits fell 50%, and it predicted trouble would continue through the year.
• Kohl's Corp. (NYSE: KSS) posted a smaller-than-estimated Q1 profit decline and cut its full-year outlook.
• Liz Claiborne Inc. (NYSE: LIZ) swung to a Q1 loss on restructuring but beat analysts' expectations.
• Lumber Liquidators Inc. (NYSE: LL) posted strong Q1 results despite the housing slump.
• Macy's (NYSE: M) beat low Q1 expectations despite weak same-store sales.
• Nissan Motor Corp. (NASDAQ: NSANY) Q4 profit surged but it warned of lower profits this year.
• Nordstrom Inc. (NYSE: JWN) posted smaller-than-estimated Q1 profit decline and cut its full-year outlook.
• Priceline.com Inc. (NASDAQ: PCLN) beat Q1 expectations due to increased bookings.
• Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) posted a narrower Q1 loss in line with expectations.
• Sony Corp. (NYSE: SNE) swung to a Q4 profit but fell short of Wall Street estimates.
• Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) beat low Q1 estimates as its loss widened on charges and lost subscribers.
• Tiffany & Co. (NYSE: TIF) projected beating Q1 earnings forecasts and raised its dividend.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) posted Q1 profits up on international growth and bargain shoppers.
• Whole Foods Market Inc. (NASDAQ: WFMI) Q2 profits fell due to the Wild Oats acquistion.
• XM Satellite Radio (NASDAQ: XMSR) reported a bigger-than-expected Q1 loss and a surge in subscribers.

Also, after AIG's (NYSE: AIG) dismal results, International Lease Finance Corp. wants to be spun off from its parent. Analysts see JC Penney, Kohl's and the rest of the retail sector rebounding in the latter half of the year. Jim Cramer ponders some suprising responses to so-so earnings reports, and looks ahead to Lowe's (NYSE: LOW) and Home Depot (NYSE: HD) as a sign for the housing sector.

Other upcoming results to watch for include Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB), Autozone (NYSE: AZO), Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ), Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU), Staples (NASDAQ: SPLS), Target (NYSE: TGT), Limited Brands (NYSE: LTD) The Gap (NYSE: GPS) and Barnes & Noble (NYSE: BKS).

Visit AOL Money & Finance for more earnings coverage.

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Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) issued Q4 and full-year numbers on Tuesday. The competitor of Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI), THQ (NASDAQ: THQI) and Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) reported adjusted fourth-quarter revenues of $919 million, which was good for a 50% increase. Earnings per diluted share were $0.09 on an adjusted basis, also representing a 50% jump. For the full year, adjusted revenues jumped 30% to $4 billion and earnings per diluted share rose 36% to $1.06. Not too bad.

EA, according to Briefing.com, also beat Wall Street's expectations by quite a bit. EA was forecast to only break-even on a non-GAAP basis, so the difference was a nice $0.09. In terms of operational cash flow, EA increased the metric by 33% during the fourth quarter, but for the full year, operational cash flow decreased 15%. Ah, such is life, I guess. Nevertheless, EA produced 27 titles that sold over a million units this year -- three more than in the previous year. Fifteen of its titles sold over 2 million units -- five more than the last fiscal period. Titles such as Army of Two and Rock Band, as well as various sports franchises, drove the results.

Things sound pretty good, don't they? EA is definitely a major force on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 and Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platforms. But EA has had some challenges during this console cycle, and there is the perception that it needs a major merger to combat the threat posed by the Activision and Vivendi Games transaction. And let's not forget that Activision is on fire all on its own. That's what the whole attempted takeover of Take-Two is all about.

Personally, I'm playing Activision right now, having held it for a long time. My cost basis is around $13 per share, and the stock is hovering around $32 per share as of this writing, only a few cents away from a 52-week high. EA, as of this writing, is about $54 per share, a little ways off from its 52-week high of $61.62. I'm happy holding onto my Activision shares, but for those who are interested in getting in on a game-publisher, EA is probably worth some due diligence since its stock isn't at the top-end of the yearly range. EA has a great software portfolio full of franchises, and these earnings results indicate that it can still play one heck of a game.

Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Before the bell: Futures lower ahead of CPI

Macy's (NYSE: M), which was forecast to report a loss of a penny a share in the first quarter, said the difficult retail environment hurt sales and it incurred costs from a restructuring. The loss came to $59 million, or 14 cents a share, compared with a profit of $36 million, or 8 cents a share, a year earlier. (As the numbers are quite fresh, it's possible they include one-time item not yet sorted out and not comparable to analyst expectations.)

John Deere (NYSE: DE) said its second-quarter profit rose 22%. Deere experienced increased demand for its farm equipment, as crop prices kept rising, posting an 18% increase in sales. Profit for the quarter jumped to $763.5 million, or $1.74 per share, a penny below analyst estimates. From premarket early action, it seems shares of DE might start much lower.

Freddie Mac (NYSE: FRE) also reported this morning, saying its first quarter loss widened to $151 million as the U.S. housing market worsened. Somehow, though, the results were not as poor as expected and FRE's loss of 66 cents a share beat estimates of a 92 cents a share loss. FRE's shares are up over 6% in premarket trading.

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Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) closed at $54.27 Monday.

ERTS is scheduled to report Q1 EPS after the market close today.

ERTS unsolicited $2 billion buyout offer for Take Two (NASDAQ: TTWO) expires on May 16.

ERTS May 55 straddle is priced at $3.55. ERTS June option implied volatility of 36 is near its 26-week average according to Track Data, suggesting non-directional price fluctuations after EPS & TTWO offer expiration.

Option Update is provided by Stock Specialist Paul Foster of theflyonthewall.com

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No matter how you slice it, whether you look at GAAP or non-GAAP statistics, Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) kicked it during the quarter. And I mean really kicked it.

Net sales for Q4 set off at warp factor 11, rising 93% to $602.5 million. Earnings per diluted share on a reported basis came in at $0.14, reversing a year-ago loss of $0.05 per share. For the full fiscal year, Activision grew revenues by 92% -- again, sales growth in the 90's! -- to $2.9 billion. Earnings per diluted share were $1.10 in 2008 versus a measly $0.28 in 2007. Take that, Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS) and THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI)! Activision is truly taking advantage of consoles from Microsoft Corporation (NASDAQ: MSFT), Sony Corporation (NYSE: SNE), and Nintendo Co. Ltd. (OTC: NTDOY). Titles such as Call of Duty 4, Guitar Hero, and Transformers drove the results -- like I always say, it's always about the quality of the slate. On an adjusted basis, earnings beat expectations by a whopping $0.12, according to Briefing.com.

I bet EA is really wishing its deal went through for Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. (NASDAQ: TTWO) right about now! I believe Activision will continue to do well the rest of the year, and I love its fundamentals, but what about the stock? As of this writing, it's up about 3%. If you are looking to trade Activision, I'd probably wait until all the earnings excitement is over and be patient for pullbacks as the market may perceive that everything is priced in at the moment now that the news is out.

Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.

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THQ's (NASDAQ: THQI) Q4 results were not good at all. Revenues were up over 8% to $187 million, but the software publisher lost an adjusted $0.37 per diluted share from continuing operations. Last year at this time, THQ generated positive adjusted net income of $0.13 per diluted share from continuing operations. The full fiscal year was no better -- revenues were basically flat at $1 billion. The company lost an adjusted $0.23 per diluted share from continuing operations during the year compared to an adjusted profit of $1.20 per diluted share from continuing operations in 2007.

This publisher is no Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) or Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) right now. Its slate is performing poorly, and the company's stock is likewise in the dumps. But what about the future? A few years back, THQ wasn't a bad investment decision. I have a feeling that THQ will rebound as the current console cycle continues its forward path, especially when further price cuts in hardware make their way to market.

THQ, however, needs to get its slate back on track, and to really go after the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 players. It seems to be doing OK with the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii platform in terms of revenue mix. Perhaps the deal struck with DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA) for a video game based on the animation company's 2010 feature Master Mind will help.

Nevertheless, there is nothing exciting in the earnings release, nothing that makes me think that THQ is out of the dark woods yet. Again, though, I would expect the publisher's stock to rebound in the future. Question is, how patient will investors be?

Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) announced that its ultra-violent game Grand Theft Auto IV took in $500 million in sales in its first week. According to The New York Times "The report exceeded the sales expectations of analysts." It would mean that the company pushed out six million copies." As it turned out, estimates were right on the ball.

The market will say that the numbers will make it harder for larger video-game publisher Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to take over Take-Two. The offer sits at $25.74. The stock trades about $1 less than that.

The problem with Wall Street's view of the offer from EA is that it is not unlike Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s bid for Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO). The board at the portal may have viewed it as undervalued, but there are no other buyers. The bid went away and Yahoo!'s shares fell. If EA walks, TTWO shares drop.

Take-Two will tell the world that the Grand Theft Auto IV numbers warrant a higher offer from EA. If the larger company has any sense, it will walk away. That would move TTWO shares back to $17 where they traded before the offer. Management at the smaller company will look like a fool.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com and author of the Ten Stocks Under $10 letter.

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I really want to turn bullish on Midway Games Inc. (NYSE: MWY), but there's no way I can do that right now. The company's stock is below $3 a share, and it's there for a reason. But, let's first look at a couple positives from the software publisher's latest earnings release. Net revenues shot up 170% to $29.9 million in Q1; that beat expectations, according to Briefing.com. And the net loss per share also beat expectations by a penny -- it came in at $0.29 per diluted share on an adjusted analysis.

But, that net loss is worse than the previous year's net loss of $0.20 per diluted share, also adjusted. Like I say, someday I want to report that Midway has turned the corner and is a buy. I simply can't do that, even though I recently bought the publisher's catalog title Rampage: Total Destruction for the Nintendo Gamecube and am having a great time with it -- guess it goes to show that you can't always judge a company's stock by the fact that you enjoy its products. One thing that Midway needs to do is perhaps seek some synergy from Viacom, Inc. (NYSE: VIA)'s MTV and Nickelodeon channels. Sumner Redstone is, after all, the controlling shareholder of Midway. Granted, THQ Inc. (NASDAQ: THQI) deals with the Nickelodeon characters at the moment, but in the future, Redstone needs to figure out a way to use his media assets to promote Midway and perhaps funnel some licensing deals to the publisher. MTV is certainly doing well with its own video-game ambitions via Rock Band, which is sold by Electronic Arts Inc. (NASDAQ: ERTS).

One thing I must point out is that, since my last article about Midway, the stock is up. This was mentioned to me by a reader. So, in objective trading terms, if you went against my opinion, you would have made money, no question. However, I have to stick to my guns and say that I personally wouldn't play the volatility in Midway's shares. Yes, you could luck out with it, maybe Redstone will come along one day and buy out the remaining shares at a big premium (doubtful, at least the big-premium part). I wouldn't want to speculate on such an outcome; I am still content with my Activision, Inc. (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares as a way to play video-game investing.

Disclosure: I own shares in Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Viacom (NYSE: VIA) issued its Q1 earnings results on Friday. The conglomerate seems to be doing all right with its strategy of leveraging content to drive growth. Revenues were up 15%, and adjusted diluted earnings per share jumped 29% to $0.44. But it can be seen that there's a dichotomy going on if you look into the performance of the two main operating segments: media networks saw its operating income rock up 15% while filmed entertainment tallied up an operating loss for the quarter. Even though that loss was narrowed by over 40%, I always get disappointed when I see a studio in the red -- it reminds me that the movie business is a risky, oftentimes low-return one.

But, should you be down on Viacom's movie business right now? Maybe not, since Paramount is currently distributing Marvel's (NYSE: MVL) Iron Man -- see Sheldon Liber's recent article about the film. That should hopefully improve things going forward, as might Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull. Viacom also will be distributing Kung Fu Panda for DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). Sumner Redstone is certainly counting on these projects to be huge. And speaking of huge, the company's Rock Band continues to fuel the media networks segment -- it's sold by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS), and it is apparently holding its own against Activision's (NASDAQ: ATVI) Guitar Hero. The synergies between MTV and the music system are obviously pushing this one. Maybe the studio should get in on the video-game action by greenlighting a movie based on Rock Band -- maybe Jack Black could star in it!

Overall, I think Viacom is performing as it should, and I hope the movie division can bring in some profits during the coming months (I think it will). As for the stock, I'd ideally like to see it a bit lower before I'd consider buying it.

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision and Marvel; positions can change at any time.

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So Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO) is about to have one heck of a week. Tell me if I'm wrong, but I'm willing to bet everyone reading this knows that today is launch day for Grand Theft Auto IV on the Sony (NYSE: SNE) PlayStation 3 and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) Xbox 360 consoles. And I'm sure there were many hardcore fans at Best Buy (NASDAQ: BBY) and GameStop (NYSE: GME) today, ready with cold-hard-cash in their hands to snag the software; in fact, this article talks about how some stores were open at midnight to satisfy the pent-up demand (remember, this title was delayed). And Douglas McIntyre discussed the game earlier today as being a potential barometer in terms of consumer confidence.

With all this incredible buzz, with the projection that GTA IV might move close to 10 million discs this year, should you be interested in taking on some Take-Two stock for your investment portfolio? The answer for me is no, Take-Two is not a buy here. Remember that we still have the whole arbitrage game going on with it since Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) wants to buy the publisher; also recall that Take-Two is gunning for a higher offer and purposely delayed further negotiations until after the release of GTA IV. I sold my position when the whole buyout offer was made a while ago, and I'm still glad that I did -- for me, the trade was over at that point, and I was happy to simply own my Activision (NASDAQ: ATVI) shares.

There will be some who will point out that Take-Two could be a buy right now because GTA IV will beat expectations, but here's the biggest signal to me that Take-Two may not be -- as of this writing, the stock price is basically flat today. Sometimes you have to look at what the market is telling you, even if the market may turn out to be wrong. That sounds contradictory in some ways, but I'm basically saying the following: GTA IV is here, the news is out, everything is probably priced in at the moment, and at the very least, arbitrage is too speculative to touch for average investors. So, I'm ignoring the buzz today, and not giving in to temptation to start a new Take-Two position.

Disclosure: I own shares of Activision; positions can change at any time.

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Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), the troubled video game company, is releasing the new version of its popular game Grand Theft Auto IV. The product is expected to set all-time records for the sales of a single video game title.

The Wall Street Journal writes that one analyst "predicts first-week Grand Theft Auto IV sales could be more than $400 million. On Metacritic.com, which compiles game-review scores from dozens of publications, the PlayStation 3 version of the game had a 100 out of 100 score." In other words, it will sell like hotcakes.

Leaving aside the hostile takeover offer by Electronic Arts (NASDAQ: ERTS) to buy Take-Two, the potential sales of the game raise an interesting question.

Consumers pocket books are tight. A larger and larger portion of their income is going to food and gas as the price of those staples rises. Eating out and buying clothes from retailers has clearly dropped off. Many people don't have the money to buy the basics.

In the face of all that, Grand Theft Auto IV is expected to sell extraordinarily well. Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s Halo 3 has already set sales records. Game consoles, the PS3, Xbox 360 and Wii are all setting sales records.

Either the consumer has a little more money than most analysts think, or the only thing they have money to do is sit for hours in their darkened homes and play video games.

Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst and the author of Ten Stocks Under $10.

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